NHL Playoffs

The Red Wings and Lightning are both in, and the first round is already under way. I made my picks before the tournament started, and I reiterate them here. Seed is in parentheses, predicted winner is in italics.

ROUND 1:

Eastern

New York Rangers (8) vs Washington Capitals (1)
Buffalo Sabres (7) vs Philadelphia Flyers (2)
Montreal Canadiens (6) vs Boston Bruins (3)
Tampa Bay Lightning (5) vs Pittsburgh Penguins (4)

Western

Chicago Blackhawks (8) vs Vancouver Canucks (1)
Los Angeles Kings (7) vs San Jose Sharks (2)
Phoenix Coyotes (6) vs Detroit Red Wings (3)
Nashville Predators (5) vs Anaheim Ducks (4)

ROUND 2:

Eastern

Montreal Canadiens (6)  vs Washington Capitals (1)
Pittsburgh Penguins (4)  vs Philadelphia Flyers (2)

Western

Nashville Predators (5) vs Vancouver Canucks (1)
Detroit Red Wings (3) vs San Jose Sharks (2)

ROUND 3:

Eastern

Pittsburgh Penguins (4) vs Washington Capitals (1)

Western

Nashville Predators (5) vs Detroit Red Wings (3)

STANLEY CUP

Washington Capitals vs Detroit Red Wings

Detroit Lions ’10 Revisited: Tempering the Consistent Disappointment with the Gleam of Hope

The Detroit Lions, who finished the ’08 and ’09 seasons with a combined 2 wins, managed to pull off four straight victories to end the 2010 season with a record of 6-10. How many franchises would look at a 6-10 finish as a sign of hope? Granted there are worse teams, but no other team would even begin to brag about a six win season.

I feel compelled to point out this context to temper the hope I feel after that modest winning streak. Then, of course, there are more serious problems than a history of failure. Most notably, the franchise quarterback Matthew Stafford just finished his second year and still only has 13 career starts, including only three starts this year. Not only has his progress been set back a year, but with serious injuries to both shoulders, he may never make it back to 100%.

On the other hand, the Lions managed to win games even when their third string quarterback was in. That gives some credence to the Lions finally having a good coaching staff in place. In fact, the Lions’ entire roster is devoid of much top-level talent, which means those wins are a great credit to the coaches.

And the brightest spot of all is the massive glare of the three hundred pound rookie on the defensive line: Ndamukong Suh.

QBs – Stafford, the hope of the Lions, started only three games and won one; and even those three games produced mixed results. On the bright side, he passed 6 touchdowns to only 1 interception; however, he didn’t manage many yards and produced only a dismal five and a half yard average. His best game did come against the Jets defense though.

Veteran backup Shaun Hill served capably, starting 10 games and winning three of those. He threw for almost 2700 yards, and finishing with a 16-12 touchdown to interception ratio. Third string quarterback Drew Stanton, second round pick in ’08 from Michigan State, started three consecutive games, winning two (and should have won the other against Chicago but for bad officiating). He racked up 780 yards and had 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.

RBs – First round rookie Jahvid Best started the first nine games, but was benched in favor of veteran Maurice Morris. Best peaked in week 2 when he accumulated 252 yards from scrimmage; he never came close to duplicating those numbers. In fact, that one game accounted for a fourth of his entire production for the year. He finished with 1042 yards from scrimmage evenly split between rushing and receiving. The main reason he was benched was probably his average yards per carry: at 3.2, it just wasn’t good enough. A lot of blame has to go to the poor-to-mediocre offensive line. Morris, who started the final seven games, only had a 3.7 average, and finished the season with just over 500 yards from scrimmage. At 31, the career backup is not the answer to the Lions’ rushing woes moving forward.

Week 1: a win and a touchdown stolen by a ridiculous rule.

WRs – Calvin Johnson, number 81 at right, is the lone Lions’ offensive player to be named a starter in the ProBowl. Despite the quarterback carousel and missing the last game of the season, Johnson gained 1120 yards on 77 catches. His 12 receiving touchdowns are tied for second most in the NFL. Second string Nate Burleson was productive, but suffered from poor hands all season.

TEs – The tight end combo of Pettigrew and Scheffler accounted for 116 receptions for 1100 yards and 5 touchdowns. The chunk of that went to second year player Pettigrew (71 for 722 and 4 td), who started every game this year.

OL – Left tackle Jeff Backus and center Dominic Raiola continue to cement the Lions’ offensive line, which was a good thing years ago. Both players entered the league in 2001 and have started nearly every game since though. Backus especially would be better at right tackle if Detroit could only find somebody to take the blind side position. Peterman and Sims started every game at the guard positions this year, which finally gives a bit of stability to the position for the Lions, if not strength. The addition of Tony Ugoh from the Colts may go to something, but he didn’t start any this year for the Lions. And current right tackle and first round bust Gosder Cherilus was alternately benched or injured this year.

DL – The lone defensive player for the Lions starting in this year’s ProBowl is the rookie Ndamukong Suh. Already, in his rookie season, he is arguably the best DT in the league (Ngata and Wilfork might take offense to that). Suh started every game and finished the year with 66 tackles, 10 sacks, 1 forced fumble, and 1 interception. The other three starting linemen added 15.5 more sacks: DE Cliff Avril, DT Corey Williams, and DE Turk McBride. At 24 and 25, the ends may be able to improve on their efforts next season.

LBs – A weakness to be sure, the linebacking corps performed adequately at best: the veteran Julian Peterson, second-year MLB DeAndre Levy, and whatever other linebacker happened to start on the other side.

DBs – Rookie CB (and sometimes safety) Amari Spievey offers some hope, but played inconsistently, occasionally looking a bit loss on the field. Second year strong safety Louis Delmas is the best player in the Lions’ secondary, which is equal parts compliment to the man and insult to the team. Second year cornerback Alphonso Smith led the team with 5 interceptions, but frequently blew coverages and was targeted by opposing quarterbacks. Nathan Vasher had little impact after coming over from Chicago. And starting corner Chris Houston was the invisible man in Lion games.

Will the Detroit Lions continue to let themselves be victimized by their past ineptitude? Or will the Man Named Suh lead the worst professional sports team of the 21st century in a new direction? Over the decade, Detroit has gone 39-121, with a 24% winning percentage.

Throwback logo from their glory years: the 50s.

2010: 6-10
2009: 2-14
2008: 0-16
2007: 7-9
2006: 3-13
2005: 5-11
2004: 6-10
2003: 5-11
2002: 3-13
2001: 2-14

The Lions are nothing if not consistent. With problems at quarterback, running back, offensive line, linebackers, and secondary, the short answer is no – they will not turn things around. But at least we’ll get a few more years of seeing Suh take out the Lions’ collective frustrations on opposing quarterbacks (before he, and probably CJ before him, go in hunt of a winning team once their contracts expire).

Projected 2010 Detroit Lions’ Depth Chart

A few quick thoughts:

1. OFFENSE
The Lions have strengths and depth at the offensive skill positions. At quarterback is last year’s rookie and the great hope, Matthew Stafford. Calvin Johnson is the star of the unit. Rookie Jahvid Best and big tight end Pettigrew are playmakers, as well as free agent acquisition Burleson. Each position offers depth now. Although I designated the fullback Felton as a starter, the Lions will probably start in a lot of two tight end sets, which means Scheffler will get the start.

The offensive starters have an average age of only 26 years. That number is increased by the two veteran offensive linemen, center Raiola and left tackle Backus. Raiola and Backus arrived in Detroit in the same draft back in 2001. Backus has started every game for nine straight years (144 starts) and Raiola started every game but four starting his second season (124 starts, 140 games played in). First round pick Cherilus will start his third season at right tackle, with mixed reviews so far. And offensive guard in Detroit has been a revolving door of incompetence and mediocrity. Hopefully, the addition of Rob Sims from Seattle will settle at least one of the inside positions.

2. DEFENSE
The worst defensive unit in the league last year has little hope of improvement. Defensive line has, however, vastly improved. The number 2 overall pick in the 2010 draft, Ndamukong Suh, will vastly improve their ability to stop those short runs (especially against Adrian Peterson) and disrupt the passing game. New addition Corey Williams is a big veteran to help Suh fill up those holes. Free agent defensive end Vanden Bosch further strengthens the unit, and young Cliff Avril may be able to improve on the opposite side of a suddenly respectable line.

Even with the line improvements, however, the Lions have an unforgiveable poverty of talent at linebacker and cornerback. Second year man Levy is a source of hope at outside linebacker after a solid rookie season. Aging veteran Peterson will hopefully continue to rush the passer, aided by the improved defensive line. We have no middle linebacker. Outside linebacker Dizon is expected to try to fill that role, with 0 career starts over two years.

The cornerback situation is worse. The four top corners on the team have a total of 15 starts last year and one (1) interception. I want to say that they have no depth, but they don’t even have a puddle with which I can measure the depth. At safety, there is more hope. Last year’s rookie Louis Delmas was far from dominant, but managed some game changing plays (like the 101 yard interception return for a touchdown or the safety). Daniel Bullocks will hopefully improve, or at least maintain his solid but unspectacular play.

NFL Fandom

So the draft is this Saturday. Yet another chance for the Detroit Lions to show the world their monumental incompetence. I was looking at some of the Lions’ and the Buccaneers’ draft history today. And I put together some information, and a wish list of the players that I hope the Lions and Bucs will take in Round 1. If you don’t like football, read no further. In fact, you probably shouldn’t have read this far. Sorry.

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Bucs’ 21st Century Attempts at drafting offensive lineman (not counting most second day picks):

2007    Arron Sears, G Rd2

2006    Davin Joseph, G Rd1

Jeremy Trueblood, T Rd2

2005    Chris Colmer, T Rd3

Dan Buenning, G Rd4 (beginning)

2004

2003    Sean Mahan, G Rd5

2002

2001    Kenyatta Walker, T Rd1

2000    Cosey Coleman, G Rd2

Hopefully Joseph and Sears will stay at the guard positions for a while, and neither will become another Cosey Coleman. And hopefully Trueblood won’t become another Kenyatta Walker. If, by some miracle, Sears, Joseph, and Trueblood all become as good as their potential, then the Bucs have a solid offensive line for the next decade.

The Bucs’ 2007 draft class might prove to be one of their best, if Gaines Adams (1st rd), Arron Sears (2nd rd), and Tanard Jackson (4th rd) work out like it seems they might. Adams and Jackson, along with Barret Ruud (Rd 2, 2005), make up a young and talented defense.

2008 Top Need: DT They only have Hovan, and though good, he’s past his peak. They need someone to fill up the middle so that Adams can get around the edge. Another DE might be nice also. Spires and Carter, eh.

CB, WR, and LB are all solid for this year, but will be needs soon. A young player in any of those positions would be good. RB might be a top need depending on Cadillac’s health. If he’s healthy, then they’re fine along with Graham and possible Pittman if he resigns. If his career is over, then they need another RB to complement Graham. Since Gruden only likes old QBs, no point in considering that.

————————

Lions’ search for a QB through draft, 1986-2007:

2007    Drew Stanton        Rd2

2006

2005    Dan Orlovsky        Rd5

2004

2003

2002    Joey Harrington    Rd1, pk3

2001    Mike McMahon    Rd5

2000

1999

1998    Charlie Batch        Rd2

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990    Andre Ware        Rd1, pk7

1989    Rodney Peete        Rd6

1988

1987

1986    Chuck Long        Rd1, pk12

After getting burned twice with high QB picks in ’86 and ’90, a long gap until Batch was tentatively selected in round 2. We should have stuck it out with Batch. Then came another debacle with Joey. Drew Stanton has been our second highest QB selection in the draft (behind Joey) in 17 years. I have no idea what his current status is with the team (on IR ALL of last year).

This year they won’t select a QB, probably because Stanton is still the quiet hope behind Kitna who has shown he is just capable enough to keep starting despite his turnovers.

2008 Top Needs (1 isn’t enough): RB, T, G, DE, DT, LB (maybe G and DT as most critical)

—————-

Lions’ Offensive and Defensive selections in Rds 1-2 (parenthetical number refers to first rounders only, and place in first round), bold faced players are ones whom I consider to be good, productive picks for Detroit. Hartings, Scroggins, Claiborne, Bailey, Batch were all decent, but didn’t stay with the team or weren’t as good as their potential suggested.

Offensive                Defensive

2007 Calvin Johnson (2), WR Ikaika Alama-Francis, DE

Drew Stanton, QB        Gerald Alexander, FS

2006 Ernie Sims (9), OLB

Daniel Bullocks, SS

2005        Mike Williams (10), WR    Shaun Cody, DE

2004 Roy Williams (7), WR Tedy Lehman, MLB

Kevin Jones (30), RB

2003        Charles Rogers (2), WR        Boss Bailey, OLB

2002        Joey Harrington (3), QB    Kalimba Edwards, DE

2001 Jeff Backus (18), T        Shaun Rogers, DT

Dominic Raiola, C

2000        Stockar McDougle (20), T    Barrett Green, LB

1999        Aaron Gibson (27), T        Chris Claiborne (9), LB

1998        Germane Crowell, WR        Terry Fair (20), CB

Charlie Batch, QB

1997        Bryant Westbrook (5), CB    Kevin Abrams, CB

Juan Roque, T

1996        Jeff Hartings (23), G        Reggie Brown (17), OLB

1995 Luther Ellis (20), DE

1994 Johnnie Morton (21), WR Van Malone, DB

1993                            Ryan McNeil, CB

1992 Robert Porcher (26), DE

Tracy Scroggins, OLB

(Jason Hanson, K)

1991 Herman Moore (10), WR

1990        Andre Ware (7), QB        Dan Owens, DE

1989 Barry Sanders(3), RB

John Ford, WR

The numbers suggest equal attention to both sides of the ball:

21 Offensive, 20 Defensive players selected in first two rounds since 1989 (and one special teams player).

9 Offensive, 9 Defensive selections since 2001.

However:

Only 1 first round Defensive player selected (Ernie Sims, 2006) since 1999.

15 Offensive first rounders since 1989; 6 Defensive first rounders since 1989

Note: There were NO notables from later rounds, unless you include Reuben Droughns as notable. None. The Lions might be the most unsuccessful team ever in the draft, considering these high picks are mostly crap also.

They seemed desperate for an offensive line from 1996-2001. Six years, and six lineman in the top two rounds, including three first round tackles in three consecutive years (1999-2001). Backus and McDougle were at least servicable. Backus and Raiola both entered in 2001 along with Shaun Rogers. The three have started just about every game for the Lions for seven years. Rogers is gone this year; but the other two will still be back and starting.

On defense, Ellis and Porcher were good picks back in the ‘90s. Well, Porcher was a great pick. He played for Detroit his entire career, 13 years, starting just about every game for ten of those thirteen years (29th on all-time sacks list).

Porcher, Barry Sanders, Backus, and Raiola have all spent their entire careers with Detroit after being drafted there. Then comes recent history: Their second round defensive picks from 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004 ALL left the team this year. Not good. Plus, I think all four of them looked good. Rogers and Bailey even looked great at times.

Likewise, four of their first two round, offensive picks from 2002, 2003, 2004, and 2005 are gone (Roy Williams is the only one here, at least for a year).

——————-

Wish list in the first round:

Detroit, 15th selection:

DT Sedrick Ellis, USC (but he won’t fall that far)

T Chris Williams (Vandy), Ryan Clady (Boise St) or Jeff Otah (Pitt)

G Branden Albert (Virginia)

DE Derrick Harvey (Florida)

[RB Jonathan Stewart, if they can get back into the first round to get him, a la 2004’s move to get Kevin Jones]

Tampa Bay, 20th selection:

WR Devin Thomas (Mich St)

RB Rashard Mendenhall (Illinois)

CB Domonique Rogers-Cromartie (Tenn St)

DT Kentwan Balmer (NC)

LB Jerod Mayo (Tenn)

Wish list in the second round:

Detroit, 15th selection (45th overall):

RB Chris Johnson (E Carolina)

QB Joe Flacco (Delaware) or QB Chad Henne (Michigan) (unlikely)

DE/LB Jeremy Thompson (Wake Forest)

G Chilo Rachal (USC)

Tampa Bay, 20th selection (52nd overall):

RB Jamaal Charles (Texas)

DT Pat Sims (Auburn) or DT Marcus Harrison (Arkansas)

CB Brandon Flowers (VaTech)

WR Jordy Nelson (Kansas St) or WR Malcom Kelly (Oklahoma)